Image: President Trump at the Israel Museum. By: U.S. Embassy Jerusalem Source: flickr License: by | //creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/
In Minab County, in the southern Iranian province of Hormozgan, forty people were killed at a girls’ school on February 28. That detail sits at the centre of everything that follows, because whatever the strategic objectives of Operation Epic Fury, whatever the diplomatic failures that preceded it, and whatever the military logic that drives it forward, the cost of this conflict is being paid by people who had nothing to do with any of it.
The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iranian sovereign territory in the early hours of February 28, 2026. The U.S. operation is designated Operation Epic Fury; Israel is calling it Operation Roar of the Lion. Together they represent the most significant direct military action against Iran since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and a decisive end to decades of shadow warfare, proxy conflict, and reluctant restraint.
How It Came to This
The strikes did not come without warning. Throughout early February, U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner led a final round of Omani-mediated nuclear negotiations in Geneva, talks that collapsed on February 26 when Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi characterised his government’s position as one of “no surrender.” President Trump had issued a ten-day ultimatum on February 20; when it expired without agreement, the military operation began.
The stated trigger, beyond the failed diplomacy, was intelligence shared between Washington and Tel Aviv suggesting a sharp acceleration in Iran’s ballistic missile production, with rates reportedly reaching dozens per month and projections of thousands within years. Combined with Iran’s efforts to rebuild infrastructure damaged during the June 2025 conflict, both governments concluded that the window for containing the programme through any other means had closed.
What Was Struck and Where
The geography of the strikes reveals an operation designed not as a punitive signal but as systematic degradation. Explosions were reported near the offices of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Iranian President in Tehran, alongside strikes on the Ministry of Intelligence, the Ministry of Defense, and the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency. Isfahan’s Nuclear Technology and Research Centre was targeted. Tabriz was hit for its ballistic missile infrastructure. Bushehr for its IRGC naval assets. Parchin, the high-security weapons testing complex, reported multiple explosions. Missile production facilities in Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah were described in initial reports as obliterated.
An Israeli security source stated that operations would continue “as long as we need.” This is not the language of a limited strike.
Iran’s Response Across the Region
Iran’s retaliation, designated Operation True Promise 4, was immediate and geographically broad. The U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain was struck, with thick smoke visible from the Manama coastline. Ballistic missiles targeted Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East, though Qatari officials reported successful Patriot intercepts. Kuwait reported Iranian strikes against its air defenses. Northern Israel, including Haifa and Jerusalem, faced direct missile barrages with air defenses active and a state of emergency declared.
Most significantly, the United Arab Emirates faced direct missile strikes on its sovereign territory for the first time since the Gulf Wars. Emirati air defenses intercepted several incoming missiles over Abu Dhabi, but falling shrapnel caused material damage in residential areas and killed one civilian, identified only as an Asian national. The UAE Ministry of Defense condemned what it called a blatant attack.
The People Inside Iran
The strikes landed on a country already in profound internal distress. Since December 2025, a combination of economic strikes and street protests has created a sustained revolutionary climate. On February 23, students at Tabriz University released a manifesto proclaiming “Neither Shah nor mullahs, long live the democratic republic,” a movement explicitly distancing itself from both the current theocracy and the exiled monarchy, though pro-monarchy slogans have also been heard on campuses in Tehran.
President Pezeshkian has labelled the protesters terrorists, and the regime’s crackdown has reportedly killed thousands since December. The commencement of Operation Epic Fury was accompanied by a near-total internet blackout across Iran, cutting off both protest coordination and documentation of strike damage. In northern Tehran, supermarkets have run out of bread, milk, and bottled water. Long queues at petrol stations and heavy outbound traffic on the Soleimani highway indicate large numbers of urban residents attempting to reach rural areas.
President Trump’s televised address explicitly called on the Iranian people to “take over your government,” framing the military campaign as a liberation. Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Shah, called on Iranian military and security forces to abandon the regime. Whether that message reaches people who currently have no internet access is another matter.
The Wider Disruption
The conflict’s immediate economic ripple has been significant. Crude oil prices have risen an estimated 15 to 20 percent on war premium alone, with gold surging past $5,200 an ounce as investors move to haven assets. Major airlines including Lufthansa, British Airways, and Air France have cancelled flights as Israeli, Iranian, Iraqi, and Emirati airspace closes. The Houthi rebels in Yemen, who had paused Red Sea shipping attacks under a deal with the Trump administration, have vowed to resume operations in solidarity with Tehran, threatening both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint simultaneously.
What Comes Next
An Israeli security source’s statement that strikes will continue “as long as we need” is the defining phrase of this conflict so far. It suggests the coalition is not pursuing a punitive operation with a defined endpoint but a sustained air campaign aimed at the total degradation of Iran’s military-industrial and nuclear base. Whether that objective is achievable from the air, and at what cost to the civilians caught beneath it, are the questions that will define the weeks ahead.
The forty people killed at the girls’ school in Minab County will not be the last.
